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Interpreting The Chart In The Light Of The Fundamentals

March 14, 2025

This is an extract from what Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang, had to say to a questioner with the company’s latest results. It leaves me with the feeling, hardly new, that this is an incredibly exciting company at the heart of the most important things happening in the world.

China is approximately the same percentage as Q4 and as previous quarters. It’s about half of what it was before the export control. But it’s approximately the same in percentage. With respect to geographies, the takeaway is that AI is software.

It’s modern software. It’s incredible modern software, but it’s modern software and AI has gone mainstream. AI is used in delivery services everywhere, shopping services everywhere. If you were to buy a quart of milk, it’s delivered to you.

AI was involved. And so almost everything that a consumer service provides AIs at the core of it. Every student will use AI as a tutor, healthcare services use AI, financial services use AI. No fintech company will not use AI.

Every Fintech company will. Climate tech companies use AI. Mineral discovery now uses AI. The number of — every higher education, every university uses AI and so I think it is fairly safe to say that AI has gone mainstream and that it’s being integrated into every application.

And our hope is that, of course, the technology continues to advance safely and advance in a helpful way to society. And with that, we’re — I do believe that we’re at the beginning of this new transition. And what I mean by that in the beginning is, remember, behind us has been decades of data centres and decades of computers that have been built. And they’ve been built for a world of hand coding and general-purpose computing and CPUs and so on and so forth.

And going forward, I think it’s fairly safe to say that world is going to be almost all software to be infused with AI. All software and all services will be based on — ultimately, based on machine learning, the data flywheel is going to be part of improving software and services and that the future computers will be accelerated, the future computers will be based on AI. And we’re really two years into that journey. And in modernizing computers that have taken decades to build out.

And so, I’m fairly sure that we’re in the beginning of this new era. And then lastly, no technology has ever had the opportunity to address a larger part of the world’s GDP than AI. No software tool ever has. And so, this is now a software tool that can address a much larger part of the world’s GDP more than any time in history.

And so, the way we think about growth, and the way we think about whether something is big or small has to be in the context of that. And when you take a step back and look at it from that perspective, we’re really just in the beginning.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia, Q4 2025, 26 February 2025

Either this guy is misguided and his track record suggests he knows what he is talking about or you have to own the shares.

Whatever is going on, the shares will inevitably go up and down, sometimes fairly dramatically, but the bottom line is that this company is growing fast and may become gigantic in the future. We need to interpret the charts in the light of that likely future.

There will be sell signals on the charts, but they are against the trend, whereas the buy signals are with the trend, so much more actionable. Since short-term share price movements are unpredictable, the wisest strategy seems to be to ONLY act on the buy signals. You could even forget about signals altogether and just buy and hold or accumulate and hold – adding to your position on future buy signals or at regular intervals.

I have concluded that using charts to predict share price movements can deliver many wins, but maybe in the end, it is not a helpful thing to do, at least not with the core of your portfolio or with those stocks where you have no reason to suppose that their prospects are anything but amazing.

A corollary to this for me is that I need to watch my leverage.

Share Recommendations

Nvidia NVDA

Palantir PLTR

Strategy – Keep Faith With Your Star Performers

I have just reinvested in Nvidia and Palantir because I think if I don’t believe in these shares and their charismatic superstar CEOs, in what do I believe? These are incredible companies at the top of their game. Share price volatility is just part of the share owning experience. They don’t pay any attention to it. Why should we?

Apologies if my recent alerts have left you a little confused.

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