Maybe Palantir Isn’t Expensive; Maybe The Others Are Cheap

Weekly Coppocks are at the beta stage when judging their effectiveness. Still, it is intriguing that on this weekly candlestick chart of ServiceNow, Coppock is as deeply negative as it was in 2016, when a long bull run began.

On this chart, I have only marked deep dive Coppock buy signals, so there is no need for the double blue smileys. ServiceNow resembles Palantir in that it is a software business with a mission to help its customers apply AI to their operations. It is around three times the size of Palantir, with expected 2025 revenues of over $13bn v around $4bn for Palantir. Yet its valuation is lower at around $200bn v $264bn for Palantir.

ServiceNow is an impressive, fast-growing company. Latest sales growth was 20pc v 36pc for Palantir. Most analysts have concluded from these comparisons that Palantir is too expensive. It is growing faster than ServiceNow, but not so much faster that its much smaller revenues should be valued at more than those of ServiceNow.

The weekly Coppock is not especially helpful with Crowdstrike (chart below), except to tell us that past deeply negative Coppock buy signals have worked well. What is interesting is the big picture presented by the chart. We can see this better on a longer-term chart.

This is a three-month candlestick chart. Crowdstrike shares are trading close to an all-time peak. Could all the trading since November 2020 be a consolidation area capable of supporting a massive bull run? I think very likely.

CrowdStrike is a critical technology company focused on cybersecurity in a world of constantly growing threats. Latest sales grew 29pc to a little over $4bn, and it is talking about an acceleration in 2027. This is a fabulous company with a founder CEO in George Kurtz, who is a star, albeit less flamboyant than Palantir’s Alex Karp or Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who have become total rock stars.

Several key areas from our performance and outlook demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business, including, first, the strength of our results demonstrates the power of our business model and sales execution, highlighted by our record total contract value reaching $6 billion in FY ’25 with growth accelerating to 40% year over year.

Second, the successful completion of our customer commitment program, which accelerated platform adoption and deepened customer relationships. Our success is demonstrated by Falcon Flex customers adding over $1 billion in Q4 account value and our strong gross retention rate of 97%. And third, as we look ahead, our visibility is improving. We expect net new ARR reacceleration, as well as operating margin and free cash flow margin expansion in the second half of FY ’26.

We believe this momentum will set the stage for further acceleration in FY ’27 over FY ’26 and position us well to achieve our long-term targets. For the full fiscal year, we achieved 23% and 29% ending ARR and total revenue growth, respectively. Operating income grew 27% year over year to reach a record $837.7 million or 21% of revenue. Net income attributable to CrowdStrike and EPS grew 31% and 27%, respectively, to reach a record $987.6 million or $3.93 per diluted share.

Burt Podbere, CFO, Crowdstrike, Q4 2025, 4 March 2025

Palatir is valued at $264bn v $105bn for CrowdStrike. This looks wrong unless, which is not unlikely, Palantir’s growth rate is set to accelerate dramatically. There is also a question about how you value these businesses.

I bought my flat in Kensington for £225,000 40 years ago. It is valued in the millions, which seems insane to somebody living in a mansion in the north of England, let alone a chateau in France. But that is the way it is. A cheap watch tells the time and costs a tenner. A Rolex tells the time and costs £25,000.

Going back to Palantir v CrowdStrike. The analysts assume that Palantir is too dear, but maybe CrowdStrike is too cheap. Analysts have a spreadsheet approach, which forgets the romance and the story.

I look at it differently. I think Alex Karp is a cool guy, a bit weird, but that goes with the territory, and Palantir is a cool company, just buzzing with excitement and potential. Nobody knows what the right price is for that. All these high-profile companies have become like Bitcoin, worth whatever the market is prepared to pay and tiny relative to where they could be going in a technology-driven world.

Forget the numbers and just think about what Palantir, ServiceNow and Crowdstrike are doing. They are taking the greatest revolution in human history (the application of gigantic data crunching computing power) and helping enterprises and governments make sense of it and use it to improve and secure their operations.

This is massive! It has also just started. We don’t yet have self-driving cars, unmanned warfare, robots, unmanned factories, or unmanned governments. The potential is beyond mind-boggling, and the analysts are arguing about valuations. Talk about wondering how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

The true problem with these incredible stocks is that, as with Bitcoin, their prices are terrifyingly volatile, so we have to adapt our buying strategies accordingly.

Share Recommendations

Palantir. PLTR

ServiceNow. NOW

Crowdstrike. CRWD

Strategy – Forget The Numbers, Buy The Story

You need to have a strategy, not me. Well, I do need one, but it will be one which works, or doesn’t work, for me. Buy and believe forever, buy some every month, pile in on every buy signal, stay invested while Coppock is climbing and stay out while Coppock is falling. All these strategies should work as long as you have chosen the right stocks and the right ones are the best ones, chosen regardless of price.

I like exciting stocks, the more exciting the better. Everything else is dead money.

Ukraine seems to be heading for a North Korea, South Korea solution. This could backfire badly for the Putemonster. If, with massive Western help, good-guys Zelensky Ukraine becomes a success story, while bad guys (Russian) Ukraine flounders, and everybody wants to leave, this could keep reminding people what a car-crash Russia is and how it could be so much better.

I can’t believe this outpouring of grief for Pope Francis. I am sure he was a decent man who did good things, but he had the most nonsensical beliefs that there is some invisible almighty being, out there or up there, who pulls all the strings and lives in a place where the entire population spends all day worshipping Him. For God’s sake, to coin a phrase, how can anyone in their right mind believe such nonsense?