Nothing can hold this stock back. Look at the power of that chart. Now and then, a company comes along which is special: Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Google/ Alphabet are some examples, capable of going from an idea to a globe-spanning behemoth. CEO Alex Karp makes no secret that he thinks that Palantir will join that select group. What do I know? Their technology is ridiculously out of my league. But I have a strong hunch that he is right and that the incredible outperformance of these shares is still only beginning.
Palantir has software that enables the world to apply AI to solving problems. Not only that, it seems to be the market leader. This is an incredible position for a company to be in at the dawn of the age of artificial intelligence.
A future straight out of science fiction lies ahead for the world, and this company is at the heart of the action. It is hard to imagine a more exciting business. Google was valued at $23.7bn at flotation, which seemed an enormous amount. Twenty years later, it is worth almost $2 trillion.
I have no idea what is going to happen to Palantir shares over the next 20 years, but just the possibility that it could be something amazing makes it sensible to hold the shares.
The shares are volatile because a glittering future is already baked into the price. Investors keep taking profits as fear replaces greed. Google was a similar case. At flotation, the business was heavily loss-making and vulnerable to competition from such ruthless operators as Microsoft. All businesses are vulnerable in the early days, but somehow, many survive and prosper.
Karp is wonderfully abrasive and bullish.
In a wide-ranging interview with Fortune, Karp is characteristically unfiltered when asked what has driven Palantir’s recent rise. “When all the idiots hate you… and you ignore them, and you build the single set of software products you would need to actually transform your company or your government… you get breakout growth,” Karp says. “That’s what’s happening.”
Fortune, 15 April 2025
Not least of Palantir’s aims is to transform warfare and make sure the US wins.
“Our entire defense establishment and military procurement complex were built to supply soldiers for a type of war—on grand battlefields and with clashes of masses of humans—that may never again be fought,” Karp and Zamiska write. “This next era of conflict will be won or lost with software.” (Conveniently enough, that’s exactly what Palantir makes.)
Fortune, 15 April 2025
Sometimes, it feels as though Karp believes only Palantir can save the world.
“The most important thing in tech is not how much you spend, but with whom,” says Karp. “It’s really important for Europe to end up with a world class defense industry. So how do you build that? How do you relearn those skills? Modern fighting is software, hardware, hybrid systems.”
Back in the U.S., Karp says software spend in defense budgets is still a tiny fraction of what it should be (Palantir estimates the figure stands at under 1pc). But he believes we now have the very best and most innovative companies here, and increasingly ready to partner with the government.
“I think the tech industry is now positive towards working with the U.S. government,” says Karp. “Does everyone truly believe? I don’t know, I can’t look into their hearts. But nearly everyone has decided that it would be suicidal not to support the U.S. government and its defense efforts.”
For Palantir, this has never been in question—even as its commercial business expands, the company’s partnership with the government remains a critical part of both its revenue stream and its story, and of course of Karp’s own mission and narrative. And whether you agree with him or not, you have to admit: Karp has been putting on the same show for decades now, whether in front of naysayers or fanboys.
Fortune, 15 April 2025
Despite its plans to revolutionise warfare, the government and military are not Palantir’s fastest-growing business. The same technology which will bring violence and death to our enemies can also transform the performance of every enterprise on the planet. The market is so vast that there is no number to capture it.
Below is a chart of the trend in Palantir’s US commercial customers up to Q3 2024.
AIP continues to fuel new customer acquisition as we have nearly five times the number of U.S. commercial customers as we did three years ago and significant expansion opportunities at existing customers. Organizations who have crossed the chasm with Palantir are driving real impact quickly. In this AI revolution, the biggest risk is not moving fast enough, and organizations are looking to us.
Ryan Taylor, chief revenue officer, Palantir, Q4 2024, 4 February 2025
There’s many a slip twixt cup and lip, but no question, Palantir is a sensationally exciting business.
Share Recommendations
Palantir. PLTR
Strategy – Buy Now, Every Month And On Every Buy Signal
Nobody knows the right price for Bitcoin; nobody knows the right price for Palantir. So use that volatility to buy across a range of prices, which should help you win big in the end. Don’t make my mistake. If you are operating with leverage, flood your account with liquidity in nervous markets to avoid a maverick sell-out of your position.
