Starmer Looks Like A Last Blast For Old-Style UK Politics

A Tale Of Two Charts – FTSE100 v Nasdaq 100

This comparison is insane. Since 1988 the FTSE 100 is up less than five times in nominal terms. Adjust that for inflation and the performance is lacklustre in the extreme. By comparison the Nasdaq 100, against a background of lower US inflation, is up, even I can scarcely believe it – 200 times!!!

Thank God we can invest in US stocks or how dull life would be. If you ever think of investing in UK shares take a deep breath, walk around the block, have a cold shower and think again.

Massive Political Upheaval Ahead

The European model, based on massive state spending funded by ever-rising taxes and a growing role for a woefully inefficient public sector is heading for the buffers. To say Starmer is underwhelming as prime minister is to put it kindly. No surprise that the odds of Nigel Farage becoming the next UK prime minister have shortened to three-to-one. Six months ago you could get three-to-one for him to win Clacton.

Starmer is an uncharismatic talk show making promises he has no idea how to keep. He perfectly illustrates the need for a word for BORING. The biggest reason why Farage may not be the next prime minister is Starmer’s replacement before this parliament finishes its term. If Farage could unite Reform and the Tories under his leadership he would win the next election by a landslide.

And then, like Milei in Argentina and hopefully Elon Musk in the US he would get out the chainsaw. New Argentine president, Milei, has cut public spending by a third while still retaining popular support. People are not idiots. They know when something is not working. Bureaucrats running everything and handouts for all are a formula for disaster.

Millennials like my children don’t get it but increasingly they are the only ones sticking to the old religion. Older and younger generations have had enough. The fate of the late unlamented archbishop of Canterbury, Marcus Welby, is almost a metaphor for where old-style British politics is heading. Ditto the appalling Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland and any of the hapless nobodies who have led the Assembly in Wales.

If the rumours are correct (so far denied) and Elon Musk puts $100m into Reform’s piggybank expect political fireworks. Starmer already looks to me like a dead man walking. My Saffron Walden MP, Kemi Badenoch, the new leader of the Tories, has everything to play for but needs to be decisive and imaginative with all options on the table.

What about the Lib Dems – the Lib who? If they were an old dog or horse I would take them to the vet.

We need a new, exciting right-of-centre political movement committed to slashing the role of the state and unleashing the entrepreneurial energy of the private sector. It is so obvious but how to make it happen. Fingers crossed we are approaching an inflexion moment.

Ego aside it is obvious who should be the next prime minister of the UK – ME!!!!! But that won’t happen so we shall have to make do with second best.

Time For A Share Tip

Deckers Outdoor is best known for its UGG brand but the business driving the group forward so strongly is HOKA, a sexy outdoor hiking and fitness brand with booming sales.

Key revenue drivers behind Decker’s first half growth of 21pc versus last year include HOKA increasing 32pc, UGG growing 13pc, total company international increasing 28pc and total company B2C [business to consumer] and wholesale, both growing more than 20pc above last year. With this impressive first half growth, the HOKA brand achieved an exciting milestone, eclipsing $2bn in revenue over the trailing 12-month period for very first time.

Stefano Caroti, CEO, Deckers Outdoor, Q2 2025, 24 October 2024

I wear trainers most of the time with boots for bad weather and I have upped my spending. I spent around £300 on some trainers plus insoles from a Swiss company called On Holdings (ONON is in the QV portfolio). Then I splashed out some £400 on Japanese trainers made by Maison Miharu Yasuhiro, which I love for their moulded rubber soles. I have my eye on some fabulous John Amiri MA-1 trainers at £659.

I wear trainers so much I think the money is well spent.

Trainers Move Upmarket

If this is part of a global move upmarket no wonder selected shoe companies are doing so well. Trainers are becoming serious luxury products and with paper money steadily losing purchasing power upmarket buys become investments.

Deckers is a class act perfect for a growth portfolio.

Our powerful brands, coupled with our strategic marketplace management and robust financial profile gives us the conviction to achieve our updated outlook for fiscal year 2025 even in the face of macro pressures impacting the broader retail space. With our incredible first half performance by the HOKA and UGG brands, two of the strongest in our industry, I am confident in the strength of our model, as we are well positioned to continue gaining market share and deliver sustainable future growth.

Steve Fasching, CFO, Deckers Outdoor, Q2 2025, 24 October 2024

Strategy – Vote For Change And Buy Shares In Classy Companies

If I was Musk I would be tempted to put up money for Reform except that it could be perceived as an egregious intervention in UK politics and make his power on both sides of the Atlantic too obvious. Musk increasingly resembles a figure from the Roman era called Crassus, the world’s richest man at that time, who, in 60BC, formed a Triumvirate with Julius Caesar and Pompey to run the Roman empire.

I need to continue reading Tom Holland’s PAX, a history of Rome, to find out where the world might be heading.