This chart for QQQ3 suggests further declines to come before this bear phase is over. The moving averages have bunched and are falling. The latest month’s move looks like a decisively broken trend line, and Coppock has been falling for months and looks likely to dip below zero.
This chart is a good proxy for the whole US stock market, and all my recent attempts to recommend buying anything have been unsatisfactory, which happens in a bear market.
The problem with bear markets is that you never know how far they might go. The wild card is Trump and his behaviour, egged on by a vice president who is as forthright as he is. It would hardly be much different if Vladimir Putin had become the 47th president.
Europe is getting a crash course in dealing with a very different global political and economic environment, and there may be shocks along the way. Trump Mark 2 is like a Black Swan effect, and financial markets are reeling.
Many Americans, the ‘deplorables’ who voted for Trump, are barely aware that Europe exists and may like the idea of a US empire that stretches from Alaska to Tierra del Fuega with no gaps in between. Tariffs that shift production to the US may also seem like a win to voters who have never heard of the ‘comparative advantage of trade’, a theory which explains why foreign trade is so beneficial to all the countries that engage in it.
This chart shows what is happening in the stock market while the Coppock Curve is rising. The results are imperfect, but they clarify that a rising Coppock reassures investors buying and holding stocks. Anything can happen with a falling Coppock, but it is time for investors to be alert.
As indicated by the blue and red smileys, indicating rising and falling Coppocks, respectively, Coppock has worked well with Nvidia. It is falling, so investors should be alert but preparing for the next buy signal.
I picked the chart of The Trade Desk at random to see how helpful Coppock would be. It works well with buy and sell signals (Coppock decisively changing direction) marked by blue and red smileys, respectively. It reinforces the simple message that buying and holding while Coppock is rising is profitable, and selling while Coppock is falling (to hold another stock where Coppock is rising) is often a good idea.
Investors can also use Coppock to reinforce their interpretation of signals coming after the bunching of the moving averages or even just a change in direction by the shorter green moving average, which frequently coincides with a trend line break.
The common-sense interpretation of Coppock’s message is to invest while a share price is gaining momentum and take cover when momentum is fading.
Strategy – US Stock Markets Have Lost Momentum
The clear message is that after a good run in 2023 and 2024 led by Nvidia and the AI data centre boom, stock markets in 2025 have lost momentum in the face of developments such as Trump’s threatened tariffs, which may boost inflation and spark trade wars.
The ideal government for most investors and probably most people solves problems, tries to do the right thing and makes things better for most people without harming minority groups.
Governments which mostly harm are those on a mission driven by ideology. The extreme examples are Communism and Religion, but even less extreme missions, Corbyn or Trump, can threaten or do harm. Trump’s attempts to impose tariffs on friendly states like Canada and Mexico and his bizarre belief that Zelensky is the bad guy in the Ukraine war are driven by ideology and threaten to harm. Investors are nervous about what he is doing and what he might do next, especially with the US Congress either supportive or cowed.
Weaving Its Magic
It is always hard to discover when US shares are going to IPO and then suddenly they are out there being traded. I missed the first two days of Coreweave amd on the third day the shares exploded. Coreweave is all about data centres and infrastructure for generative AI and, according to CEO, Michael Intrator, demand is relentless.
CoreWeave, the AI Hyperscaler™, delivers a cloud platform of cutting-edge software powering the next wave of AI. The company’s technology provides enterprises and leading AI labs with cloud solutions for accelerated computing. Since 2017, CoreWeave has operated a growing footprint of data centres across the US and Europe.
The CoreWeave Cloud Platform simplifies the complexity of engineering, assembling, running, and monitoring state-of-the-art infrastructure at a massive scale to deliver cutting-edge performance and efficiency for AI workloads.
Coreweave website
Last year was an unbelievable banner year.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) stock has had a bumpy start after it hit the public markets last week. Its initial public offering (IPO) wasn’t well received on Friday, and the stock plunged in its first full day of trading yesterday.
Shares of the cloud infrastructure company are soaring today, however. The stock was up by 21.5pc as of 1:45 p.m. ET, making it comfortably above its $40 IPO offering price. One reason for the pivot likely came thanks to strong quarterly results from artificial intelligence (AI) software infrastructure provider Progress last night. Another has more to do with CoreWeave itself.
A huge deal for CoreWeave
While Progress is a smaller company with a market cap of about $2.4bn, the market is rewarding the provider of AI-powered digital experience and infrastructure software for a strong fiscal first quarter. Revenue soared 30pc versus the prior-year period, showing that businesses continue to integrate the use of AI into enterprise IT (information technology) infrastructure.
How does that relate to CoreWeave? While its IPO last week wasn’t well received, mainly due to concerns its heavy debt load would weigh it down just as companies might start pulling back on AI infrastructure spending, Progress’ report is a small sign that capital should continue to be spent as businesses see returns using AI infrastructure.
Investors may now be focusing more on a critical deal that CoreWeave announced prior to its IPO. The newly public company has an $11.9bn contract with OpenAI to deliver AI infrastructure to expand OpenAI’s compute capacity.
That one deal will go a long way to helping CoreWeave pay the debt it has incurred to grow the compute capacity it offers other AI companies. CoreWeave needs a strong and growing AI sector to succeed. It has what it needs in place for that to happen.
Yahoo Finance, 1 April 2025
I like the sound of Intrator, who comes across as a star company founder and CEO in the mold of Jensen Huang of Nvidia.
Share Recommendations
Coreweave. CRWV
I have no idea what the right price for Coreweave is. I suggest starting a buying programme based on time ($-cost averaging with purchases each month) or on buy signals such as weekly and monthly moving averages turning higher after a decline.
I find it hard to become too bearish about this market when the technology background is so exciting. Bull and bear markets come and go, but this unfolding technology revolution is still growing.
It seems Coreweave makes its money by winning big contracts like the one with OpenAI, borrowing the money and using it to build out the infrastructure (tailor-made for AI) so that the money rolls in to pay off the debt. It is a pity the IPO was not as successful as they had hoped; fewer shares were issued at $40 instead of $55, and they raised $1.5bn instead of $2.5bn, but they will probably return for more later.
Coreweave data centres are optimised for GPU and AI in a way nobody else can deliver, and demand is epic. The world is automating and is still early in shifting to autonomous vehicles, robots, unmanned warfare, intelligent factories, and so much more.
